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How to safely buy and sell petroleum products at, Rotterdam, Houston, Antwerp, Zeebruge or Oman ports. Choose your logistics and insurance company carefully. Collaborate with approved interlocutors, ensure the availability of the goods, and/or the financial credibility of the client. Make sure that your file is complete (including all the necessary documents) for the port authorities and export. With this service you will find: - Accredited logistics company at the port. - Insurance company. - Terminal: Identification, Technical Characteristics and Availability. - LNG Regasification terminal - Port formalities. - Inspection company: SGS, Intertek, Sayboolt, etc... - Delivery: Injection Tank to Tank or Tank to Vessel - Pipeline agreement.

Tensions in the Middle East have driven Brent crude above $78 per barrel, yet the underlying market fundamentals continue to be bearish. Weekly analysis of the oil market Last week, crude oil prices in the markets surged sharply, driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East after Iran's missile attack on Israel, which was in retaliation for the assassination of a Hezbollah leader by Israel. Ambiguous remarks from US President Joe Biden about ongoing discussions regarding potential strikes on Iranian oil facilities in response to Tehran's attack caused crude prices to jump by over 5% last Thursday. Nevertheless, the upward pressure somewhat subsided on Friday following additional statements from the US, indicating that Israel might be considering alternatives to striking Iranian oil infrastructure. On average this week, Brent oil futures for November delivery increased by $1.8/b to $75/b, while the December contract rose by $2.0/b to $74.6/b. WTI prices reached $71.2/b, a 2.5% increase. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg on October 3rd predict a decrease in Brent prices for the fourth quarter to $80.0/b (a $1/b drop) and to $78.6/b (a $1.4/b drop) for the first quarter of 2025. This reflects ongoing market concerns over rising global supply and persistent weak demand in China, despite recent attempts at economic recovery. The surge in prices resulted in a rise of the Brent implied volatility index, hitting its peak in almost a year (fig. 11). Trading volumes for Brent call options also soared to unprecedented levels last Wednesday, especially for contracts at $100/b. Despite the ongoing crisis, market fundamentals continue to indicate an excess supply. OPEC+ is set to reinstate some of its production capacity, with increments planned from December. Moreover, following a significant political standoff with Tripoli's government that lasted over a month, the eastern Libyan authorities declared last Thursday that oil production and exports would resume. Iran's Influence on the Global Oil Market. Last week, concerns about escalating tensions and potential attacks on Iran's oil infrastructure brought the nation's oil market into sharp focus. Despite being under embargo, Iran has significantly ramped up its oil production in recent years, going from less than 2 million barrels per day to nearly 3.4 million barrels per day, nearing the pre-2018 sanction levels imposed by former President Donald Trump. This surge in production has seemingly occurred with the US administration's tacit consent, which viewed it as a strategy to temper rising crude prices, coupled with support from China, the primary purchaser, who has consistently disregarded Western sanctions. Furthermore, Iran has capitalized on OPEC's leniency, which has exempted its production from quotas, thus marking one of the most substantial production increases within the organization last year. Numerous analyses have attempted to evaluate the potential consequences of an assault on Iranian oil facilities or a severe intensification of the embargo on the nation. These assessments suggest that oil prices might increase by $20/b (Goldman Sachs) to $28/b (Clearing Energy Partners). Nevertheless, these forecasts fail to consider a potential rise in OPEC production, which possesses enough spare capacity (5 Mb/d, with 3 Mb/d in Saudi Arabia alone) to compensate for a complete cessation of Iranian oil exports. The global manufacturing sector experienced another slowdown in September. The recent months have seen an intensification of the global manufacturing slowdown. The global manufacturing PMI, after peaking at a two-year high of 51.0 in May, has been in contraction (below 50) since July. In September, the index dropped nearly one point to a 14-month low of 48.8, as reported by S&P Global. Despite this, the recent and planned easing measures in the US, China, and the euro area may lend some support to the global industry outlook. Nevertheless, there are risks, including the potential for a surge in oil prices should the Middle East conflict worsen. The global manufacturing slowdown is widespread, yet the downturn is predominantly observed in developed markets, where the average index dropped by 0.8 points to a nine-month nadir of 47.5 (August: 48.3). In emerging markets, the average index fell by one point to 49.8, marking the first contraction since January 2023 (August: 50.8). The euro area's fragility, particularly Germany's, is notable. Germany's manufacturing PMI plummeted to 40.6 in September (August: 42.4), a year-long low, precipitating a further dip in the euro area's average to a nine-month trough of 45.0 (August: 45.8). In the USA, crude oil and gasoline stock levels are on the rise. Last week, commercial crude oil inventories saw a significant increase of 3.9 million barrels (Mb), greatly exceeding the anticipated decrease of 1.4 Mb and the five-year average increase of 0.4 Mb. Currently, stocks are 1% higher than the previous year's levels, yet they remain 5% below the five-year average. This surge is attributed to a reduction in refinery processing of crude oil, primarily due to the closure of BP's Whiting refinery, coupled with a rise in production to 13.3 million barrels per day (Mb/d). Regarding refined products, gasoline inventories expanded more than forecasted, with a rise of 1.1 million barrels (MBmb) compared to the expected increase of 0.2 MBmb, while distillate inventories fell more than anticipated by 1.3 MBmb. Presently, gasoline and distillate stocks are 1% and 7% below the five-year average, respectively. In Europe, diesel prices are on the rise. The Amsterdam Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) hub's petroleum product inventories have remained stable, with gasoline inventories increasing by 4% and diesel inventories decreasing by 1%. Following the trend of crude oil, gasoline prices saw a modest increase of 1%, while diesel prices rose by 3%. The ICE diesel forward for the current month closed the week $48/t higher on Friday, driven by concerns over potential regional conflicts in the Middle East, which have escalated diesel prices across Europe. By the end of Friday's session, European diesel shipments reached their highest point since late August, yet the demand for diesel has remained generally stable. Amidst these developments, the average refining margin in Europe (Brent FCC) fell by 7% to $5.0/b. Receive the full report and more, become a member of the KOMPTRADE community.

Brent crude has risen to $74/b following the Federal Reserve's key rate increase. Weekly analysis of the oil market Last week, the oil market gained some support and optimism after the US Federal Reserve decided to reduce its key interest rate. However, the growth potential remains constrained unless the geopolitical climate worsens, especially due to the subdued demand in China and the US, which impedes a sustainable price recovery. On average, ICE Brent futures for October delivery increased by $2.8/b (4.0%) to $73.9/b, and WTI prices went up by $3.3/b (4.9%) to $71.2/b. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg on September 20 have revised the fourth quarter Brent oil price forecast down to $81.0/b (a decrease of $1/b) and to $80.0/b for the first quarter of 2025. In the futures markets, fund managers have adjusted their oil positions upward after hitting record lows. Bullish bets on Brent and WTI have increased by a total of 37,224 net long positions, reaching 89,509, based on weekly data from ICE Futures Europe and the CFTC. Conversely, in the petroleum products markets, net bearish positions in diesel have hit a record high of 45,437 lots, the most since 2006, as per CFTC data. In a similar trend, bearish positions in diesel surged to 72,683 lots, the highest in over a decade, according to ICE Futures Europe, signaling concerns over a potential global oil demand deceleration. The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts: the start of a new economic cycle? The Federal Reserve's decision to lower its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points for the first time in four years, reducing rates to 4.75-5%, was largely welcomed by the market. The S&P 500 surged 1.7% to a record high, and gold prices reached a new peak at $2,609 per ounce. This unexpected cut, which was double the anticipated 25 basis points, is seen as "bold and preemptive." However, some view it as an indication of the Federal Reserve's concern over the state of the U.S. economy. This substantial reduction at the cycle's outset, along with explicit signals of further cuts in the future, is expected to stabilize the U.S. economy. Meanwhile, the European Commission is formulating various proposals to enhance the labor market's quality. The Federal Reserve's decision resulted in a predictable effect on the dollar, causing a modest depreciation. The average weekly value of the dollar decreased from 0.7% to 100.7%, marking its lowest point since July 2023. Should this downward trend of the dollar continue, it may stimulate international crude oil demand, as it becomes less costly for foreign countries, potentially leading to an increase in gross revenues. In the USA, crude oil stocks are declining, and there is also a decrease in gasoline demand. In the USA, crude oil inventories have declined, with commercial crude oil stocks falling by 1.6 million barrels, now nearing the levels seen at the end of last year and 4% below the five-year average. In contrast, crude oil stocks at Cushing, a key hub for futures contracts, dropped by 2 million barrels to 22.7 million barrels, the lowest in five years. This reduction in crude inventories was bolstered by a 1.8% rise in net exports and a decrease in crude production to 13.2 million barrels per day. Refinery utilization also decreased to 91.2%, as several facilities scaled back operations due to Hurricane Francine. Additionally, some refineries have brought forward their maintenance schedules due to the low profit margins on gasoline and diesel in the U.S. Meanwhile, inventories of petroleum products saw a slight increase, with gasoline stocks in line with the five-year average, whereas diesel stocks are still 7% below the average. The average demand for gasoline over four weeks continues to decline, staying below 9 million barrels per day for the second consecutive week. The International Energy Agency (IEA) notes that in the US, despite a record number of kilometers driven this summer, improved efficiency standards, the increase of electric vehicles, and teleworking have reshaped the relationship between economic growth, distance traveled, and fuel consumption. Europe: Strong increase in gasoline stocks. In Europe, the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) hub reported a 2% rise in petroleum product inventories, marked by a notable 8% surge in gasoline stocks, whereas diesel stocks stayed relatively stable with a slight 0.5% increase. The boost in gasoline reserves can be attributed to reduced exports to the United States and West Africa. Nonetheless, gasoline stocks are still 15% under the five-year average, while diesel reserves have hit their peak since February 2023, surpassing the five-year average by 14%. Oil prices have mirrored the rising trend of crude, with gasoline prices increasing by 5% and diesel by 2% over the week. Concurrently, the average refining margin in Europe (Brent FCC) rose by 7% to $4.7/b, which is 9% lower than the five-year average of $5.0/b. Receive the full report and more, become a member of the KOMPTRADE community.

Brent crude at its lowest level for 3 years despite OPEC's intervention. Weekly analysis of the oil market Last week saw a sharp decline in crude oil prices, with Brent crude closing at $71 per barrel on Friday, marking its lowest point since December 2021. The fall was attributed to the release of disappointing macroeconomic data from the United States and China, which reignited concerns about the demand for oil. The decision by OPEC+ to prolong its additional voluntary production cuts for another two months failed to stem the downward trend. This was due to the anticipated resolution of the conflict in Libya and a resurgence in oil exports. Furthermore, the decrease was exacerbated by fund managers in the futures markets who cut their net long positions in Brent and WTI by a total of 99,889 contracts to 139,242, as reported by ICE Futures Europe and the CFTC, reaching an all-time low. On a weekly average, ICE Brent futures for October delivery declined by $6.1/b (a 7.7% decrease, marking the largest weekly drop since October 2023) to $73.5/b. In a similar trend, WTI prices dropped by $6.3/b (an 8.4% decrease) to $69.1/b. Following a Bloomberg survey of economists on September 6, Brent price projections for the third quarter were lowered to $84.0/b (a reduction of $0.5/b) and to $82.6/b (a reduction of $0.4/b) for the fourth quarter. China: weak domestic demand; USA: slowdown in the labour market. The recent release of China's PMI indices once again depicted a rather uninspiring outlook for the Chinese economy. The official composite PMI dipped slightly to 50.1, marking a 20-month low (July: 50.2). Meanwhile, the Caixin composite PMI, which has a greater emphasis on service companies, held steady at 51.2. Consequently, both composite PMIs suggest that the Chinese economy is persisting at a tepid growth rate. The downturn in the property sector continues to suppress domestic demand. In the United States, the latest employment figures indicate a loss of momentum in the labor market, with a rise in the unemployment rate and a decrease in job creation. Some economists believe this report should encourage the US Federal Reserve to initiate rate cuts at its upcoming meeting on September 17 and 18 to avert further economic decline. Globally, the JP Morgan PMI for August highlights a significant disparity between the manufacturing and services sectors. The services sector saw a marked acceleration, with its activity index climbing to 53.8, the highest since the previous May. Conversely, the manufacturing sector's decline persisted, marked by a decrease in production, new orders, and employment, with an index of 49.9. Ultimately, the composite index reached 52.8 in August, a slight increase from 52.5 in July, staying above the neutral 50.0 mark for the tenth month in a row. OPEC+ aims to stabilize crude oil prices by prolonging additional voluntary production cuts. Amid falling crude oil prices, sluggish oil demand growth, and the potential for a swift end to the Libyan conflict, the eight countries that had committed to voluntarily reducing their production last week have decided to delay their plans. Initially, the unilateral production cuts were to be phased out gradually on a monthly basis by 180 to 200 kb/d, from Q4 2024 to Q3 2025. However, given the current market surplus and weak demand, these plans to augment supply have been deferred by two months. Members now intend to gradually reintroduce these cuts from December 2024 until November 2025, subject to further market developments. The recent agreement also includes a firm commitment from Iraq and Kazakhstan to implement specific measures to adhere to the agreed production levels and to honor their compensation schedules for August and September. Ultimately, OPEC+'s decision to moderate the pace of supply increases is expected to stabilize prices rather than cause an immediate surge in Brent crude to $80/b in the near term. Upstream oil and gas investment in 2024: up 1% to $620 billion. Rystad Energy forecasts a 1% increase in global upstream oil investment for 2024, reaching $620 billion. Shale oil investment is predicted to decline by 10% this year, while offshore investment is poised for a 6% growth. Africa is expected to see the most significant increase in upstream oil investments, at 20%, driven by projects in Nigeria, Uganda, and Libya. Europe follows with an 18% rise, primarily in Norway and the UK. In scenarios of steady oil demand, upstream investment is projected to stabilize at $620 to $660 billion annually for the years 2025-2030. This investment level should suffice for resource renewal if crude prices stay within the $70 to $80 per barrel range. Should prices fall below $60 per barrel, Rystad estimates that 25% of resource additions would become unprofitable. USA: Fall in crude oil inventories and lower demand for petroleum products. Last week, commercial crude oil inventories decreased by nearly 7 million barrels, placing stocks 4.5% below the five-year average. This reduction was attributed to decreased imports and a steady domestic crude oil production rate of 13.3 million barrels per day. Regarding petroleum products, the delivery volume of refined products, seen as an implicit demand indicator, declined from the previous week by nearly 5%, primarily due to a 4% fall in gasoline demand. Concurrently, gasoline inventories increased by 0.8 million barrels. Europe: Sharp fall in petrol prices. In Europe, the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) hub reported a 2.5% decrease in petroleum product inventories, primarily due to reduced stocks of petrol (-3%), fuel oil (-8%), and kerosene (-7%). The prices of petroleum products mirrored and intensified the drop in crude oil prices, with petrol prices falling by 11% and diesel by 4%. Product cracks have continued to weaken due to low demand in Europe. Gasoline cracks have plummeted by over 40%, dropping below $6 per barrel, while diesel cracks have marginally increased by 4.5% to $17.1/bbl. Against this backdrop, the weekly average refining margin for Brent crude remained nearly unchanged (+1%) at $4.3/bbl, which is 16% lower than the five-year average of $5.1/bbl. Year-to-date, the average Brent FCC margin is at $9/bbl, in contrast to the $6.1/bbl five-year average. Receive the full report and more, become a member of the KOMPTRADE community.

OFFICE Some expert advice More than a trading company, a development vector at the cutting edge of innovation. KOMPTRADE is a United Kingdom based company with operational offices in Luxembourg. It is a global network which trades more than twenty commodities. New technologies applied to renewable energies, the IT sector, Biotechnology and above all NewSpace are bringing new commodities with high added value to the market. KOMPTRADE by diversifying its team has thus acquired the skills and the network to target these commodities and the companies that have developed these new technologies. Location Our offices are located on the 1st floor of a renowned business center. This gives us direct access to prestigious investment funds with which we share premises. This proximity has allowed us over the years to establish a solid relational network and, gain recognition from the main players operating in international trade. We have chosen to set up our operational offices in Luxembourg, not just for quality of life also for its position as an international financial center established in the heart of Europe. It includes the most successful investment funds because, fully compliant with EU law, these funds can be immediately promoted throughout Europe. They are flexible in terms of registration and use, and offer a quick-to-market prospect. This makes Luxembourg ideal for many types of trading activity, including umbrella funds, hedge funds, private equity, real estate, family offices or mutual funds.

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