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Brent down to 87.2 US$/b, under pressure from monetary tightening Crude oil prices fell last week under pressure from concerns that aggressive central bank monetary tightening is increasing the risk of a recession and the reduction in oil demand that could result. On a weekly average, Brent on the London futures market lost $2.6/b (-2.9%) to $87.2/b and WTI in New York lost $3.4/b ( -4.2%) at $79.6/bbl (Fig. 1 and 2). The consensus of economists surveyed by Bloomberg as of September 30 is also down with a median price of Brent in 2022 at 101.7 $/b (on average over the year 2022 Brent is at 102.5 $/b) and 94 .6 $/bbl in 2023. For the fourth quarter, however, several Wall Street banks are forecasting a rebound in crude prices despite growing fears of a global slowdown: JPMorgan Chase forecasts that London Brent will reach $101/bbl for the last three months of 2022, while the Goldman Sachs group sees $125/bbl and Morgan Stanley $95/bbl. Online crude oil price: Brent and WTI market This is the paradox of the current period. As Europe stands on the brink of a major energy crisis with a embargo on Russian oil due to start in December, and growing gas supplies reduced with the stoppage of Russian gas deliveries to Italy this weekend (after Germany and France) and the attack on two Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines, crude prices are down nearly 13% this quarter. View our full Crude Oil Market Report - Week of 03/10/2022 .

Trafigura, the trading company of Singapore wins the contract for the construction of a railway line which will allow the ore transport from Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) to Angolan port. The project will connect the mineral wealth of the DRC to Angola. The corridor will have a total length of 1,870 km, of which 1,340 km will be in Angola and will arrive at the Angolan port of Lobito located 500 km south of Luanda, the Angolan capital. Trafigura joined forces with the Portuguese entrepreneur Mota-Engil and Vecturis a Belgian rail developer, to win this contract, the consortium will thus benefit in exchange for a 30-year concession. The concession, which could be extended by 20 years if they decide to build a branch line to Zambia. The bid was chosen over a competing bid from Chinese conglomerate CITIC and China Railway 20 Bureau Group. Composition of the consortium. The consortium is made up of Trafigura 49.5%, Mota-Engil 49.5% and Vecturis 1%. Concession value: $100 million. Consortium investment: $256 million in infrastructure and $73 million in rolling stock. Royalties expected by the Angolan government over 30 years: 2 billion dollars. This corridor could considerably improve the export capacity of the DRC which currently exports copper, cobalt and other minerals to the east via Dar es Salaam in Tanzania, Beira in Mozambique or to the south towards Durban in South Africa, a risky trip that takes several weeks The consortium will be responsible for the operation, management and maintenance of the rail link, which will transport minerals, liquids and gas to Lobito from the Angolan town of Luau, which is close to the border with the DRC. "As export volumes have increased to meet the demand for minerals needed for the energy transition – cobalt is needed for lithium-ion batteries – roads out of the DRC have become more congested and delays at the border more protracted. A rail route would remove trucks from the roads and offer “considerable cost and time savings for miners in the Copperbelt”. The Lobito Corridor tender was launched in September, following the expenditure of some $2bn by the Angolan government to rehabilitate and modernise the corridor’s existing infrastructure". Sponsored by the investment fund.

The price of firewood - Pellet- is rising. Last summer, the average price of a stere of wood was 84 euros. This year, it is up to 140 euros (+70%). The price of pellets has risen by 120%, from 4.20 euros per 15 kilo bag to an average of 10 euros. For this winter it will be cheaper to heat with wood. Following the increase in energy prices - electricity and gas - people are flocking to Pellet, its price has increased by 120% compared to 2021. Despite this increase, pellet remains competitive with gas. It all started last year with Covid. As people became more and more confined to their homes and teleworking, they wanted to improve their comfort. But what caused a rush to buy wood and pellet stoves was the sharp rise in the price of gas and oil. With more wood-burning stoves on the market, the demand for pellets exploded, but the supply did not follow. As a result, prices have risen. Increase in the price of wood. To understand this increase in the price of wood, we have to go back to last year, when the weather was very, very wet. The forests were not really accessible and the covid caused a lack of labour. So activity in the forestry operations was reduced. In addition, the price of standing trees has increased, but that's not all. There is also an increase in transport costs, which is reflected in the final selling price, combined with a decrease in imports, particularly from Eastern European countries. And all this is combined with increased competition from the wood and paper panel industry, which sources the same type of raw material. This increases the demand for these co-products and inevitably pushes up prices. Pellets: fewer orders in sawmills. But what about pellet? Pellet comes from sawmills. In the sawmills, there were fewer orders, but the demand remained high. The international pellet market is saturated by demand and handicapped by its limited supply. Shortage There is no real shortage of firewood. However, the situation is different for pellets. All production units in Europe are running at full capacity and unfortunately this is still not enough to meet the current demand for pellets and this demand is only growing. Our opinion Winter is going to be expensive in Europe, the price of pellets will at least remain high throughout the winter, it would not be surprising if it were to rise again.

Oil market. Brent, Sep 2022: $90.6/b (Aug 2022: $100/b) The price of Brent crude lost 6% last Friday. On a weekly average, the spot price of Brent was at $89/b last week down nearly 3% (WTI at $83.5/b, -4.3%). The price of Brent, which reached $84.8/b on September 23, down 6% in one day, has returned to its levels from the beginning of the year. The "meltdown" in the oil and financial markets last week was the result of negative economic expectations and geopolitical risks, in particular after Russia's announcements (partial mobilization and annexation referenda in eastern Ukraine). The significant decline in Brent thus followed the trend of the financial markets, which fell sharply in September: -6.9% for the S&P 500, -7.8% for the Nasdaq and -3.1% for the EuroStoxx50. The context of oversupply until the third quarter of 2023 may also have contributed to this decline in oil prices. Overall, demand risks outweighed expectations of a potential reduction in Russian supply. Note: while gasoline prices on the European markets follow the evolution of oil prices, the situation is slightly different for diesel. A premium on the price of this product persists, reflecting tensions in terms of supply. This explains the smaller drop in the pump price of diesel compared to gasoline. Oil market september 26, 2022, full report. The FED remains firm in its objectives to fight inflation. ECB warns of economic risks in Europe Gas and electricity prices down, but still high in Europe Timely information on the oil market.

This article is based on information from Platts "Commodity: Electric Power Region: Americas Subscriber note type: Market Notification Daily North American power data is as follows: West bilateral assessments performed Sept. 28 will include day-ahead on-peak and off-peak for Sept. 29-30 flow. West bilateral assessments performed Sept. 29 will include day-ahead on-peak and off-peak for Oct. 1 flow. West bilateral assessments performed Sept. 30 will include weekend on-peak and off-peak for Oct. 2 delivery and day-ahead on-peak and off-peak for Oct. 3 flow".

The pound fell to a record low against the dollar following the announcement of the biggest tax cut in 50 years. At the opening of the FTSE this Monday 26/09/2022, United Kingdom time, the pound sterling was quoted at 1.07 dollar worse, at the opening of the markets in Asia, it was trading at 1.03 dollar, which is a low historical value. The decline follows the announcement of further tax cuts in addition to a £45 billion package announced on Friday as borrowing is expected to increase. If the pound remains at this low level against the dollar, imports of commodities denominated in dollars, including oil and gas, will be more expensive and inflation is likely to persist or even intensify.

Tech stocks just had their worst two-week stretch since the start of the pandemic. For the third quarter, the tech index goes into the red. The Nasdaq Composite has fallen more than 5% in recent weeks. Tech stocks rallied early in the quarter, but lingering inflation and cautious comments from the Federal Reserve dampened that enthusiasm. Tech companies that had seen more than a decade of steady growth are now reporting cutbacks. After losing 5.5% the week of 09/15/2022, the Nasdaq Composite fell 5.1% this week. This marks the worst two-week period for the tech index since its fall in March 2020. "Investors have been dumping tech stocks since late 2021, betting that rising inflation and rising interest rates would have an outsized impact on the companies that rebounded the most during boom times. The Nasdaq is now just above its two-year low set in June". For the 3rd time in a row, the FED raised these rates by 0.75, thus bringing the value back to 3 - 3.25, one of the highest values ​​since 2008. This increase further strengthened the Dollar against the Euro and other currencies . The Dollar being more expensive, the products of American tech companies become more expensive for export and sell less well, their stock market value has therefore fallen and, since the FED rates are not likely to fall in the coming days, we must expect a further drop in tech stocks from the Stock Exchange, Nasdaq, etc... Overall, tech stocks are all down (except Apple), and the trend is not going to reverse in the next few days, at least as long as FED interest rates are high: This week of 20/09/2022. - Amazon - 8% - Google parent Alphabet - 4% - Facebook Parent Meta - 4% - Sharing economy companies. Airbnb, Uber, Lyft and DoorDash all suffered declines of between 12% and 14%. the most important decreases: GitLab -16%, Bill.com -15%, Asana -14% and Confluent -13%. Forecast. - Alphabet, which experienced a 40% increase last year, forecasts single-digit growth. - Apple should reach around 6% Investment advice.

Australian scientists have discovered a revolutionary process for producing and storing powdered hydrogen. This discovery could ensure the global energy transition and revolutionize the entire energy sector. Hydrogen, the energy of the future. Hydrogen is considered the energy of the future because it produces zero emissions when burned as fuel and may even be more efficient than fossil fuels. Due to its low CO2 emissions, this energy seems to be a credible alternative, associated with a fuel cell, this energy does not emit CO2. Hydrogen will play a key role in reaching carbon neutrality in 2050. However, in order for this energy to become democratized one day, it will have to be transformed and stored in an environmentally friendly way, while remaining viable in terms of security. The issue is that currently, 95% of hydrogen is made from fossil fuel sources (natural gas, oil) and wood. There are currently three types of production process: Natural gas reforming or steam reforming. Most used method. The gasification of charcoal. Water electrolysis. This makes the production of hydrogen expensive and polluting, thus pushing some critics to qualify hydrogen as "false good idea for energy". Revolutionary Australian discovery. a team from Deakin University (Australia) explains that it has made a very important discovery making it possible to obtain powdered hydrogen using a safe and inexpensive process, which uses boron nitride (BN), a chemical compound that is thermally resistant and stable well known and already widely used in different industries. Boron nitride in powder form is very absorbent, according to a mechanochemical process, scientists were able to extract hydrogen from other gases and store it in boron hydride. The experiment was repeated several times in order to be confirmed. This process, although long to implement, consumes very little energy and it is a simple process. Boron nitride can absorb hydrogen. Thus, it becomes possible to store hydrogen in the form of powder by a simple process that consumes little energy. This discovery has a medium-term impact with tomorrow, the use of hydrogen in the automobile. But above all, it has an immediate value because it brings a revolution in the process of oil refineries. Immediate impact in petroleum refining processes. Cryogenic distillation and the chemical separation of petroleum elements now represent between 10 and 15% of global energy consumption. This process based on boron nitride, allows an energy saving of about 90% and can be implemented in petroleum refining instead of cryogenic distillation.

LNG imports outside Russian federation and stocks in Europe have increased. Europe wants to control the prices of energy, mainly gas, it has taken a number of measures to reduce energy demand and at the same time it increases these stocks of LNG. Faced with the risk of an energy crisis, Europe was able to fill these stocks. Thereby, Germany's strategic storages are 81.07% full. Besides France, four other European countries out of 27 are at more than 90%: Portugal (100%), Poland (99.56%), Sweden (90.8%) and Denmark (93.76%). %). All countries filled their tanks more than 50%, the worst off being Latvia (55%) and Bulgaria (59%). In Europe, Russian gas imports fell from 65% to 9%, the total LNG storage capacity being 1165.9 TWH, the volume of imported LNG (excluding the Russian Federation) more than doubled in less than 4 months, this import volume could have been higher, but the lack of regasification terminals limited it. However, major work was quickly carried out to increase this regasification capacity with the installation of floating terminals. According to Bloomberg " Natural Gas Buyers Hoarding Fuel at Sea to Prepare for Winter Europe’s congested LNG import terminals spur floating storage. Ships are parked in sea off Europe, Asia and Central America. Energy traders and power utilities are storing more liquefied natural gas at sea, an unusual move to hoard supply for winter as the market faces a severe shortage". The European Commission instead of capping natural gas prices, it has chosen to act on energy consumption and excess income from the energy sector to control energy costs European natural gas prices again tumbled Monday as storage inventories climbed and governments continued to discuss measures aimed at better controlling soaring energy costs. LNG prices have therefore been falling since 15/09/2022 and we believe that this fall will continue at least until October. For the 4th quarter of 2022, the price of LNG will depend on the harshness of the winter.

Queen Elizabeth II of England died on September 09, 2022, after 70 years of reign, the longest reign in Great Britain and the 2nd longest reign in the world after that of Loui XIV which lasted 72 years. England is losing a key figure in its history who went through the events of his Reign with great intelligence and sense of duty. Condolence to the British people. The Queen is dead, long live the King...

The state of health of Queen Elizabeth II worries these doctors, the whole Royal family rushes to her bedside, thus confirming the fears about the evolution of the Queen's health. Buckingham Palace says the Queen is under medical supervision at Balmoraol after doctors became concerned for her health. Le Prince Harry et Meghan Markle se rendent au chevet de la reine Les enfants et petits-enfants de la monarque se rendent au château de Balmoral, en Écosse, après l’annonce de Buckingham Palace.

"Russia may have to start selling natural gas to Europe again - but that would maximize Moscow's revenue". Following Bloomberg Russia may have to turn the natural gas tap back on for Europe, Citi's global head of commodities research said Wednesday. Russia has halted Nord Stream 1 flows, and Europe is facing a worsening energy crisis ahead of winter. "At some point Russia might want to maximize the revenue they are getting from natural gas," Ed Morse told Bloomberg.