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In the second quarter of 2022, global LNG trade is estimated to be up 3% compared to the previous year. Global LNG supply continued to increase under the impetus of US exports, but this growth nevertheless marks a slowdown compared to the first quarter (+5.5%) due to a lower availability of LNG supply . LNG imports into Europe continued their strong growth compared to 2021, while Asian LNG demand continued to decline, due to the Covid crisis in China and high LNG prices affecting its competitiveness. The European price premium compared to the Asian market makes it possible to attract LNG cargoes, in particular from the United States. The influx of LNG into Europe partly offset the fall in Russian gas deliveries and maintained high storage filling rates in a context of weak demand. Outlook Russia's gas supply to Europe is at a historic low, raising fears of a major supply crisis in the coming months. The Nord Stream gas pipeline, whose utilization rate is currently only 40%, must stop operating from July 11 to 21 for maintenance. There is a risk that the Nord Stream will no longer deliver anything after maintenance. The European gas market thus enters the third quarter of 2022 on red alert, with the reduction in Russian supplies prompting emergency measures to come, such as the recommissioning of coal-fired power plants and rationing. A price explosion against a backdrop of hyper-volatility cannot be ruled out and the prices forecast for this winter are soaring and are already close to €150/MWh. In Asia, spot prices should remain under the influence of the European market, with the global LNG market remaining very tight, while consumer countries have to fill their storage this summer in preparation for winter.

The average price of Brent over the first few days of July, very volatile ($107 to 119/b), stood at around $112/b, down $10/b compared to the previous month. The price of Brent in early July fluctuated between $107 and $119/b before settling around $112/b, down $10/b from the previous month. This is explained by the risk of global recession announced by the IMF. #BRENT07152022. Divergent forces influence the global oil balance. The average price of Brent over the first few days of July, very volatile ($107 to 119/b), stood at around $112/b, down $10/b compared to the previous month. This fairly significant correction is largely due to the risks weighing on the global economy, risks confirmed by the IMF indicating in early July that a global decline could not be ruled out. This explains the downward trends in oil, financial markets and commodities, especially agricultural products (-3.7% in June) and metals (-5.5%; Fig. 2). Favorable factors for reducing inflationary pressure, current levels remain maintained, weighing on both household purchasing power and corporate margins. The price of petroleum products at the pump, for example, with a discount of €0.18/l, was around €2/l for diesel and E10 on 8 July compared with €1.43/l and €1.53 €/l respectively in 2021. Rising oil prices (Fig. 3), significant premium on the international price of petroleum products due to constraints on refining (Fig. 4), and to a lesser extent weakness of the Euro are the cause of these deviations from 2021 (Fig. 5). Thus, under current conditions, assuming a fall in the price of oil to $70/b, i.e. the average price for 2021, diesel and E10 prices would remain above last year's averages (around €1.80/l excluding discount; Fig. 6). The price of Brent around 105 to 115 $/b in 2022? At 112 $/b in July, the price of Brent is up very sharply compared to the start of the year ($87/b in January). It averaged $108/bbl over the first seven months, compared to $71/bbl last year (Fig. 4). Assuming a price between 100 and 120 $/b until December, the average for the year would be between 105 and 115 $/b, a level which has not been reached since mid-2014. These price levels are well above the break-even thresholds for developing new oil deposits, thresholds estimated, for example in the United States, at between $50 and $70/b (Fig. 7). The price of oil therefore “benefits” from a premium linked mainly to the constraints weighing on the supply of oil, which lead to a reduction in the level of commercial stocks held in particular by Western countries (Fig. 8). Western sanctions on Russia with moderate effects so far. The war in Ukraine has obviously increased the pressure on the price of oil given the importance of Russia on the world energy scene, with for example an oil production quota equivalent to that of Saudi Arabia (10, 3 Mb/d in February). However, the Western sanctions have not, for the moment, had any notable effect on Russian exports, the reductions in deliveries to the West having in fact been compensated by deliveries to China and India (Fig. 9). This explains, along with the deteriorating economic context, the relative easing of oil prices while at the same time gas prices remain under extreme tension1 (Fig. 10), subject to the drop in Russian gas deliveries to Europe. Finally, it should be noted that the use of strategic oil stocks has certainly made it possible to moderate the pressures on the price of oil. In the United States, for example, destocking from strategic stocks (SPR) has reached 100 Mb since the start of the year, which represents a significant volume of 0.6 Mb/d on average (Fig. 11).

Evolution of the oil price in 2023, the different scenarios. Divergent forces influence the global oil balance. - The effects of Western sanctions on Russia. - A supply/demand balance subject to many uncertainties in the coming months. - A significant dispersion for the oil price scenarios #BRENTFORECAST2023. Divergent forces influence the global oil balance. Western sanctions on Russia with moderate effects so far. The war in Ukraine has obviously increased the pressure on the price of oil given the importance of Russia on the world energy scene, with for example an oil production quota equivalent to that of Saudi Arabia (10, 3 Mb/d in February). However, the Western sanctions have not, for the moment, had any notable effect on Russian exports, the reductions in deliveries to the West having in fact been compensated by deliveries to China and India (Fig. 9). This explains, along with the deteriorating economic context, the relative easing of oil prices while at the same time gas prices remain under extreme tension1 (Fig. 10), subject to the drop in Russian gas deliveries to Europe. Finally, it should be noted that the use of strategic oil stocks has certainly made it possible to moderate the pressures on the price of oil. In the United States, for example, destocking from strategic stocks (SPR) has reached 100 Mb since the start of the year, which represents a significant volume of 0.6 Mb/d on average (Fig. 11). A supply/demand balance subject to many uncertainties in the coming months The current market outlook, subject to many uncertainties, points to a surplus in the last two quarters of this year followed by a growing deficit in 2023 (Fig. 12). However, this anticipation is based on many very uncertain assumptions: 1 - Global oil demand, up 1.7 Mb/d in 2022 and 2.1 Mb/d in 2023, is expected to reach 101.3 Mb/d next year, exceeding consumption by 0.8 Mb/d of 2019 (IEA database). This demand could nevertheless decline under the effect of a significant reduction in the growth of the world economy as envisaged by the IMF. Each drop of 1% in growth leads to a decline of around 0.5 Mb/d in world demand. 2 - Non-OPEC+ production, up significantly, should reach 49 Mb/d at the end of 2022 and 50 Mb/d in 2023 against 46.2 Mb/d in 2021 (Fig. 13). More than 60% of this increase is due to the increase in American supply (+1.3 Mb/d in 2022; +1.1 Mb/d in 2023, relatively dynamic supply due to a recovery in drilling activity since September 2020 (Fig. 14) 3 - Although the evolution of Russian production is difficult to predict, the IEA anticipated in June a significant drop in this Russian production which would gradually reach 8.7 Mb/d at the end of the year against 11.4 Mb/d last March. and 10.4 Mb/d in May (oil + condensates + NGL; Fig. 15). This scenario is based on a decline in domestic demand in this country and a decline in Russian deliveries assuming a gradual impact of Western sanctions (EU, US embargo). However, this level of decline is very uncertain. It could be higher if Russia opted for a policy of reducing deliveries to the West, similar to what is done for gas. On the contrary, it could be lower if the Western measures aimed at capping the price of Russian oil without any constraint on the volumes exported are implemented. For the moment, Russia has succeeded in stabilizing its global deliveries on the basis of a discounted price of 30 to 40 $/b, which benefits, for example, Indian refiners2. 4 - OPEC+ policy beyond August remains to be defined. It will be during the next meeting scheduled for August 3. A stability of the supply or more exactly of the OPEC10 quota is possible given the uncertainties weighing on the world demand for oil. Conversely, OPEC could decide to gradually make up the deficit forecast for 2023. In this scenario, the use of reserve capacities (Fig. 16), which would initially reduce pressure on the price oil, would gradually be a source of tension due to a lack of leeway for the market. 5- The production level of some OPEC countries lacks visibility, with a growing gap between quota and actual production (Fig. 17). Two countries in particular failed to fill their quota, Nigeria (-0.7 Mb/d) on the one hand and Angola (-0.3 Mb/d) on the other. This is in addition to the supply deficit linked to sanctions for certain countries (Iran, Venezuela) or to domestic political instability (Libya; Fig. 18). The return of Iran, uncertain to date given the lack of progress in the negotiations, would be likely to reduce the pressure on the market. This country currently produces 2.5 Mb/d for an estimated capacity of 3.8 Mb/d. Significant dispersion for oil price scenarios Oil price expectations are currently contained within a very wide range, reflecting the uncertainties mentioned above. This dispersion reflects the different possible and credible scenarios at the economic and geopolitical level. If we refer to the surveys carried out by Reuters with various analysts, expectations are between 99 and 120 $/b in 2022 and between 75 and 120 $/b in 2023 (Fig. 19). Even more extreme estimates also exist. Thus, Citigroup anticipates that oil prices could fall to $65/bbl by the end of this year and as low as $45/bbl by the end of 2023 if the world entered a recession reducing demand for oil. oil. Conversely, JP Morgan Chase is considering a scenario at $380/bbl if Russia were to retaliate against the sanctions imposed by the G7 countries by reducing its oil production. JP Morgan's scenario is based on a significant drop of 5 Mb/d in Russian production. A voluntary decline, calibrated to the level of deliveries to Western countries, i.e. 3.5 Mb/d in May, remains however possible. This is similar to the IEA scenario, which nevertheless assumes a gradual reduction in deliveries given the delays provided for by the EU sanctions3. A faster decline would not allow a gradual adjustment of the supply/demand balance, which could lead to a surge in prices (150 to 190 $/b possible; Fig. 20) in order to "destroy" demand. However, this scenario does not take into account a possible re-export to “non-Western” countries, which has been in progress since the start of the war.

SRF Pellets, recycled fuel which has a higher calorific value than thermal coal and is cheaper. Solid Recovered Fuel (SRF) is a high quality product made from residual waste left behind once all commodities and contaminants have been removed. These fibres and fragments of paper, plastics, wood and textiles have high calorific value, low moisture and low chlorine content - a great fossil fuel replacement #SRF.SRF (Solid Recovered Fuels), represent a high-efficiency source of energy for the production of heat and electricity, as well as a convincing alternative to the problems of landfilling waste SRF is an alternative fuel (fossil fuel replacement) that is derived from commercial and industrial (C&I) materials transformed by bio-mechanical processes and engineered to have a comparable or higher calorific value than that of thermal coal. SRF-Fluff is a substitute for thermal coal and widely used by cement and power generation companies. It is manufactured with a high calorific value, low moisture, low chlorine, and contains lower contaminant levels than typical lignite and bituminous coals. Solid Recovered Fuels (SRFs) meet quality requirements for economic, technological and environmental needs defined in a standard e.g. EN 15539 in Europe or JIS Z7311 in Japan. The sectors of steel/iron, pulp/paper, glass and the chemical industry are generally still little explored. It could change quickly if circumstances such as oil price or real price of CO2 among others will become beneficial. Energy-intensive industrial sectors (e.g. cement and lime manufacturing industries, coal fired power plants) have increased their demand for high quality SRF over time. Based on the data and the opinions of experts collected for the purposes of the study, such industrial sectors could be the main SRF endusers in different European countries in a medium-term perspective. In particular the cement industry is expected to increase the thermal substitution rate (TSR, in some cases already high: 41% in EU-28, >60% in Germany, Czech Rep. Austria in 2014), with a mix of alternative fuels, to which SRF significantly contributes both with mass and energy (see Figure on the left). India and China have more recently started to develop a domestic production of SRF from MSW and industrial wastes. In China, the ongoing intensive growth of the incineration industry, mainly focused on the FBB technology, could become a large end-user of SRF. The same is expected for the cement manufacturing industry in both China and India (the largest cement consumers and producers in the world), particularly if existing barriers (technological, legislative, economical…) will be quickly removed or reduced. A significant transboundary shipment of SRF (e.g. China; India; Europe with UK as the main exporter and The Netherland, Germany and Sweden the main importers) denotes an internal demand for SRF locally or not adequately supported by the capacity of MT/MBT plants and/or satisfied at a more competitive cost by the imported fuel (recipient countries), or lower than the domestic production (exporter countries). Global Solid Recovered Fuel (SRF) Market is segmented by Type Low Grade: <10 MJKg, High Grade:>10 MJ/Kg and By Application Cement Plants, Lime Plants, Coal Fired Power Plants, Combined Heat and Power (CHP), Other. Some of the companies involved in SRF: - Estre Ambiental - Biffa - Ecomondis - Countrystyle Recycling - Renewi - SUEZ Recycling and Recovery - Veolia - Carey Group - FCC Austria Abfall Service AG - EcoUrja Renewable Energy - Komptrade

NASA has been working to bring humans back to the moon for 4 years with the ARTEMIS program. The US Space Agency announced on Tuesday, November 9 that the return of astronauts to lunar soil, as part of the Artemis program, would not take place before 2025, The reasons for this delay are legal, budgetary and technical. #SPACEXLUNAR. Jeff Bezos' company, Blue Origin, is taking legal action against NASA's award to Spacex of the lunar spacecraft market. The American Space Agency announced this Tuesday, November 9 that the return of astronauts to lunar soil, as part of the Artemis program, would not take place before 2025. In question, a legal problem concerning the development of the future lander, a budget reduced by the congress, the pandemic and a delay in the development of the paddle and the combinations. In the 1960s, the Apollo program launched by JF Kennedy allowed the United States to win the space race against its competitor of the time the USSR, Apollo, had thus benefited from a colossal budget allowing the young NASA to mobilize the best engineers and technicians. 2020, the Artemis program aims to repeat the feat, and is intended in the long term to establish a viable human presence on the Moon and prepare missions to Mars. But the program, bringing together NASA and the company SpaceX, has been delayed, There are many reasons: A dispute between NASA, Spacex on the one hand and Blue Origin, Jeff Bezos' company on the other hand. Indeed, SpaceX and Blue Origin were in competition during the selection of the manufacturer of the moon lander, and the latter considered the selection process unfair and had taken the case to the courts, it was dismissed, the court ruling in favor. NASA and Spacex, however, the legal process had the effect of temporarily blocking the budget of the United States Congress, thus delaying the construction of Spacex's Starship moon lander. NASA having announced a 39% increase in the cost of the program, from a budget of 6.7 to 9.3 billion dollars, the American Congress had to give its agreement, this was delayed by the legal procedure. The global pandemic that has delayed the implementation of test programs on Spacex's Starship. If the rocket and the spaceship that will allow the transport in space to lunar orbit, will enter the test phase in a few months, the lunar aater, Spacex Starship is still in development, namely: test of orbiting - Space refueling capability and moon landing; All these steps will not be validated before 2025. The Artemis program is divided into 3 phases: Artemis I, II and III.

Following possible European sanctions in the migratory crisis, Belarus threatens to cut off gas deliveries to Europe. Belarus, accused of orchestrating a migration crisis on its border with Poland, threatened Thursday to respond to possible European sanctions by interrupting gas deliveries passing through its territory. #BELARUSCRISIS. Belarus: Brussels accuses the regime of Alexander Lukashenko of having brought these migrants from the Middle East by plane in retaliation for the sanctions imposed on it. In the event of punitive measures, Minsk "will answer", affirmed the authoritarian president Alexandre Loukachenko, evoking the possibility of closing the valve of the gas pipeline Yamal-Europe which carries Russian gas in Germany and in Poland, in particular. "What would happen if we cut the natural gas going there?" Said Lukashenko, whose threat comes at a time when European countries are faced with soaring gas prices due to shortages. The situation on the border between Belarus and Poland, two countries in central Europe, is causing growing concern in the international community. The UN Security Council is due to look into this issue on Thursday. More than 2,000 migrants, including Kurds from the Near East, have been stranded for several days in a makeshift camp on the border, where they warm themselves by burning wood to withstand temperatures close to 0 ° C. The European Union accuses Minsk of organizing these migratory movements, in particular by issuing visas, in revenge for Western sanctions imposed on Mr. Lukashenko's regime last year after the brutal repression of opponents. Sign of growing impatience in Europe, Germany judged Thursday that it was "high time to draw the consequences" of this crisis by strengthening the sanctions against the regime of Mr. Loukachenko. Further retaliatory measures are expected early next week, according to Brussels Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, who on Wednesday accused Lukashenko's regime of "state terrorism", said Thursday that his country was the target of a "war of a new kind". This time, "the ammunition (used) are civilians," he said in a statement issued on the occasion of the Polish National Independence Day. Brussels accuses Minsk of having put in place a whole set of logistics to attract candidates for exile, by chartering them flights and bringing them to the Polish border, with the promise of easy access to the Schengen area. Warsaw further claims that Belarusian security forces use intimidation to force migrants into Polish territory, including by firing shots into the air. Minsk in turn argues that Polish border guards violate international standards by pushing back migrants with violence. As a result, many migrants, including children and women, find themselves stranded in the wooded border area without humanitarian assistance. Faced with this influx, Poland deployed 15,000 troops, erected a fence topped with barbed wire and approved the construction of a border wall. Warsaw reported on Thursday 468 new crossing attempts the night before, including a group of "150 people" who tried to "force the border". Since August, Poland has recorded a total of more than 32,000 attempts to enter its territory illegally, including 17,300 in October. In Sokolka, a Polish town located about fifteen km from the border, the authorities were on the alert, stopping vehicles to check that they were not transporting migrants, AFP noted on Wednesday. Several residents of this city have expressed their concern and expressed their support for the firmness of their authorities. "I am afraid that migrants will manage to pass and the consequences that this could have," said Henryk Lenkiewicz, a 67-year-old pensioner. To avoid a worsening of the crisis, the EU on Wednesday called on Russia, Minsk's main supporter, to intervene. Paris also estimated Thursday that Russia was "part of the solution, since the dependence (of Belarus) on Moscow is increasingly strong", in particular on the economic and politico-military level. Moscow, which Warsaw designates as the real instigator of this crisis, has so far confined itself to providing support for Minsk, with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov denouncing on Wednesday an "anti-Belarusian campaign". According to the Polish daily Gazeta Wyborcza, 10 migrants have died in the border area since the start of

The world is facing a significant increase in energy prices. Gas, electricity and fuel bills are weighing more and more on family and professional budgets. a little history to understand this flight. The price of natural gas has experienced a strong rebound since August 2020. Indeed, the price of the corresponding futures contract is now approaching $ 5, The increase in natural gas represents an average increase of 62% between the beginning of January and the end of November. At the end of the summer, Europe was suddenly brought back to its precarious condition: that of the area of ​​the world most dependent on the import of hydrocarbons. Oil shocks have certainly been "classics" since the 1970s, with booster shots at the end of the 2000s (the barrel then approaching 150 dollars) and 2010s. But the current surge in the price of gas is more singular: the growth of 400% since the beginning of the year on the wholesale markets has been marked by its brutality. And as this shock is transmitted to electricity, many European households are subjected to a double penalty, while electro-intensive manufacturers are under great pressure. Nord Stream 2, explanation by French television France 24 Little Reminder. These circumstances force us to take a closer look at the workings of the gas market, and to go back a few decades. In the 20th century, gas imports into Europe were organized around long-term contracts (up to 25 to 30 years) to guarantee the financing of gas pipelines allowing it to be transported over thousands of kilometers. And for that, it was necessary to agree on both the volumes delivered and the prices. The latter were generally indexed to those of petroleum products, because a disconnection between the evolution of the price of a cubic meter of gas and that of a barrel could have led to preferring to burn oil (and therefore to under-use the gas pipelines, weakening their financing). Reduction of long-term contracts From the 1990s, this risk was reduced, because industrial equipment based on gas combustion (in particular to produce electricity) became more efficient, while the strengthening of environmental standards (concerning sulfur, nitrogen oxide, etc.) worked against petroleum. Above all, the financial crisis of the late 2000s led to an inconsistency when demand began to stagnate, while supply increased (in the form of liquefied gas, notably from Qatar and Yemen). Surplus situation which has been reinforced by the “surge” of shale gas in the United States. These developments should have led to a drop in gas prices in Europe. Instead, a barrel of oil hanging on for years beyond $ 100 continued to pull them up. There was little doubt that the link between oil and gas was becoming toxic and even favored the use of coal (competitor of gas) against the objectives of decarbonisation. This situation has led to a reduction in the proportion of long-term contracts in gas deliveries in Europe, in order to gain flexibility and be able to seize the opportunities offered by liquefied gas (transported by boat). Above all, the contracts were indexed to the price of short-term gas trading platforms and no longer oil (so-called “gas-to-gas” indexation). Encouragement to develop fossil gas substitutes Today, the surge in gas prices in Europe can certainly be explained by certain internal factors, such as insufficient wind power production in recent months (and a more frequent call to thermal power stations in compensation). But above all, we are discovering that the price is now also dependent on events at the end of the world, as in China (recent floods in coal mines) or in Brazil (lower efficiency of hydraulic dams), which affect the demand for gas. In this context, the Russian supplier reminds its European customers that “old-fashioned” long-term contracts offered more security. And play "cat and mouse" to speed up the commissioning of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, in order to increase import capacities to Europe. The lesson from this autumn is that Europe will not necessarily be able to count on cheap and abundant gas to support its transition to carbon neutrality in 2050. This is as much a threat as an encouragement to develop substitutes for fossil gas, such as biogas and hydrogen.

November 3,2021: Brent ended down 3.22% to $ 81.99, while WTI fell 3.63% to close at $ 80.86. According to the US Department of Energy on Wednesday, domestic stocks of crude excluding strategic reserve for the week ended October 29 increased by 3.3 million barrels compared to the previous week, while stocks of gasoline fell 1.5 million barrels and inventories of distillates rose 2.2 million barrels. #BRENT03112021. US stocks at their peak for the winter? then the price of oil could stabilize around $ 80. Brent ended down 3.22% to $ 81.99, while WTI fell 3.63% to close at $ 80.86. At issue, the jump in US crude stocks, which rose 3.3 million barrels during the week ended October 29, according to figures released Wednesday by the US Energy Information Agency (EIA), when the market expected 2.25 million. New York (awp / dpa) - Oil prices slipped on Wednesday after the news that US crude inventories had risen again much more than expected in a week. A barrel of Brent from the North Sea for delivery in January touched in session, in London, a low for almost a month, at 81.50 dollars, before recovering slightly. As for the barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for December, it flirted with the symbolic threshold of 80 dollars, above which it has been sailing since October 13. Brent ended down 3.22% to $ 81.99, while WTI fell 3.63% to close at $ 80.86. At issue, the jump in US crude stocks, which rose 3.3 million barrels during the week ended October 29, according to figures released Wednesday by the US Energy Information Agency (EIA), when the market expected 2.25 million. This is the second surprise in a row after the increase of the previous week, which was twice the forecast. This is the second surprise in a row after the increase of the previous week, which was twice the forecast. "All this conversation about the global energy crisis has encouraged a lot of traders to position themselves in the energy markets and now they think we might be at a peak and they are trying to take their profits. ", estimated Michael Lynch, president of the firm Strategic Energy & Economic Research (SEER). This sales mood was also fueled, at the margin, by the possibility of a change in the trajectory of the Organization of Petroleum Producing Countries (OPEC) and its allies of the OPEC + agreement, on the occasion of their monthly meeting. , Thursday. "It is unlikely that OPEC + will agree to increase its production beyond an additional 400,000 barrels per day as prices drop and the market is expected to be overcapacity next year," he said. commented, in a note, Bart Melek, head of commodity strategy at TD Securities. This monthly increase of 400,000 barrels per day corresponds to the schedule announced in July and which should theoretically continue until September 2022. For Michael Lynch, the market could be experiencing a turning point, after weeks of acceleration. "The increase in inventories of crude and distillates (mainly diesel and fuel oil) suggests that the market will ease" and prices stabilize or fall, argued the analyst. This cold snap could also be favored by the resurgence of Covid-19 in Russia and China, underlined Louise Dickson, analyst at Rystad Energy, as well as by the management of energy shortages by the Chinese authorities, which have already led to a sharp drop in coal prices in recent days. However, many traders still view the market fundamentals as pointing up and see, like Bart Melek, Brent at $ 90 or more.

OPEC + flouts US pressure Brent spot, Nov 2021: $ 82.5 / b (Oct: $ 83.5 / b) The spot price of Brent down 2% last week (Fig. 1). The spot price of Brent down 2% last week (Fig. 1). The price of Brent came to a halt in the past week averaging $ 82.5 / bbl, which corresponds to a drop of nearly 2% (WTI at $ 81.8 / bbl, -2.5%). #BRENT08112021. According to the US Department of Energy on Wednesday, domestic stocks of crude excluding strategic reserve for the week ended October 29 increased by 3.3 million barrels compared to the previous week, while stocks of gasoline fell 1.5 million barrels and inventories of distillates rose 2.2 million barrels. Apart from a further increase in US oil stocks (+3.3 Mb), last week has been dominated on the oil front by the OPEC + meeting. Despite American pressure, OPEC + has recorded the continuation of its policy of moderately increasing supply (+ 0.4 Mb / d per month). This policy is justified by the expectations of equilibrium the oil market but also by the current economic uncertainties linked to the pandemic. The United States has indicated on November 4, study the possible options to reduce the pressure, which had the effect of making slightly lower oil prices. The slight easing in gas prices in early November in Europe may also explain it. The end of the week was marked by a fairly clear rise in the price of oil (from $ 80.5 to $ 82.2 / b) under the effect of favorable US employment statistics and due to encouraging announcements regarding the treatment of Covid19. Economic context: support from the FED and return to the theme of the pandemic. Last Wednesday, the decisions and FED statements once again reassured the financial markets (Fig. 2). The expected reduction in support monetary policy was acted with nuance, the FED indeed indicating that it was ready to adjust it "if this is justified by the economic outlook. "The Fed also kept its key rates unchanged, again raising the idea higher than expected inflation (confirmed by the latest World Bank indicators, Fig. 3) but of a temporary. Globally, the theme of the pandemic is coming back to the forefront due to the rise in cases in Europe (Fig. 4; Euro5: Germany, Spain, France, Italy, United Kingdom) but also in the United States. Outside the countries Western countries and China (controlled increase), the situation remains characterized by a high level of contamination and significant correlation of deaths at this level (Fig. 5), a correlation which is now less strong in Euro5 (Fig. 4). The For the moment, repercussions for the oil market come mainly from passenger air transport, still well below its 2019 levels (53% lower in September 2021 compared to 2019) but in the process of reprise. “Oil is not the problem”. Faced with these uncertain prospects and the expected evolution of the oil market, the countries of OPEC + have chosen not to change their policy. This is because OPEC production is likely to exceed in the coming months the level of production that would be necessary to balance the market (Fig. 6). In others terms, the market will be in surplus which justifies this caution. Moreover, OPEC must also take into account, in its strategy, the possible return of Iran to the market (up to + 1.3 Mb / d) and the potential increase in the supply of non-OPEC + including that of the United States (+ 1.2 Mb / d according to the EIA in 2022, LGN included). Finally, it should be remembered that the pressure is all relative for the price of oil, which is at levels already observed in 2018 in particular. This is what recalled more succinctly the Saudi oil minister in a concise phrase: "oil is not the problem". The rise in gas and electricity prices, especially in Europe, appear to pose a greater risk for the recovery economic than the price of oil. US administration hints at actions in the face of rising prices. On November 4, the deputy spokesperson for the White House has indicated that the main producing countries must act to stabilize prices so as not to halt economic recovery. She also indicated that discussions were underway with consumer countries. and that a review of all possible measures was under consideration (including the use of stocks). The most plausible seems unilateral recourse to strategic stocks, a solution whose effectiveness would however be limited. A coordinated action of the EIA, which has only resorted to this solution three times in the past (1991, 2005 and 2011), seems unlikely while its policy is meant to deal with shortages. There remains diplomatic action vis-à-vis the OPEC (very uncertain success) or within the framework of the negotiations with Iran (more flexible position of the United States?). The exceptional energy context still favors the demand for oil for the electricity sector. In Europe the gas and electricity prices remain under pressure (Figs. 7 and 8), despite a slight decline, and the futures markets expect still on the continuation of this trend this winter, followed by a very relative relaxation from April. On the base current prices, heavy fuel oil remains competitive in winter for the production of electricity up to a price of $ 100 / b, against a maximum of approximately $ 80 / b for domestic fuel oil. This zone of 80 to 100 $ / b could therefore still be reached this winter depending on the level of pressure in the electricity and gas markets (importance of the weather ...).

In Iran, cryptocurrencies both sanctioned and praised, Tehran had announced the ban on mining on its territory until the end of September but at the same time, Iran relied on cryptocurrencies to carry out imports, wanting to regularize their use. The cryptocurrency boom is causing power cuts in Iran. On May 26, President Hassan Rohani therefore announced the ban on mining on his territory - this process of extracting cryptocurrencies carried out via computers to allow the creation of new coins and ensure the maintenance of the log of digital token transactions. . #IRANCRYPTOCURRENCY. Cryptocurrencies are a popular investment among Iranians and estimates suggest that the number of those who already own one coin or another may be as high as 12 million. Mining, an energy-intensive operation, which would have caused power outages in Iran in several homes or business offices that could last up to six hours a day, the most publicized of them is that which occurred during the championship Asian online chess, which caused the defeat of Iranian players. The limit on extractions will remain in effect until September 22. According to Hassan Rohani, these blackouts are mainly due to a heat wave and drought affecting the production of hydroelectric power, the latter also stressed that the consumption of electricity had increased by 20% in the country during the year. passed and that cryptocurrency mining, 85% of which is unlicensed, was using more than 2,000 gigawatts of the network every day. A cause and effect relationship disputed by Iranian analysts, even though the demand for digital currencies in Iran has indeed increased in recent months: According to the Financial Times “The Iranians are trying to protect their economies against an annual inflation rate of 46, 9%, a plummeting stock market and stagnant real estate prices". Iranians Said to Transfer $180 Million in Crypto Daily. Despite the lack of proper rules for most of the crypto space and the government stance on the matter, a growing number of Iranians have been investing in decentralized digital money over the past months and years. “An estimated around 12 million Iranians own cryptocurrencies. Iranian's daily crypto transactions is estimated between $181 million, while there is no regulation over trade in cryptocurrencie. According to a report by the English-language business portal Financial Tribune, the executive also pointed out: more than 88% of the deals are conducted via local exchange platforms. This amount, Mirzaei elaborated, is higher than the total of all capital market transactions in the Islamic Republic. “An estimated seven to 12 million Iranians own cryptocurrencies,” the blockchain entrepreneur also revealed to Iranian media. Mirzaei’s comments come after earlier this year Iranian officials voiced concerns over crypto assets attracting capital from traditional markets. In early May, digital coin trading platforms were accused of taking advantage of the volatile state of the stock market, where deals had seen a significant decline since last summer. At the time, the Central Bank of Iran (CBI) advised Iranians to avoid cryptocurrency, warning them that these investments would be at their own risk. Later that month, the parliament’s leadership asked the National Tax Administration to profile the owners of Iranian cryptocurrency exchanges and report back. The Speaker of the Majlis, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, stated that imposing a ban on crypto trade is not enough and called on the CBI to develop precise regulations for the sector. In July, members of the Islamic Consultative Assembly proposed a bill aimed at adopting rules for the exchange market.

The spot The price of a barrel of North Sea Brent for December delivery fell 2.10% to $ 84.58 from the previous day's close. The price of a barrel of North Sea Brent for December delivery fell 2.10% to $ 84.58 from the previous day's close. In New York, a barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for the same month dropped 2.35% to 82.66 dollars. #BRENT28102021. (New York) Oil prices fell sharply on Wednesday after weekly data on US inventories and with signs of resuming nuclear talks with Iran. The two benchmark contracts, however, remain close to their multi-year records broken on Monday, when WTI surged above $ 85 for the first time since October 2014, to $ 85.41, and Brent plunged above $ 85.41 for the first time since October 2014. flirted with his previous high of 2018 by touching $ 86.70. These gains, which were already crumbling after the forecasts of an increase in US crude stocks by the American Petroleum Institute (API) on Tuesday, were crumbled with the publication on Wednesday of figures, considered more reliable, from the US Agency for Energy Information (EIA). Stocks of black gold climbed 4.3 million barrels in the week ended Oct. 22, twice as much as analysts expected, to stand at 430.8 million barrels. "But if the fall in prices started with the swelling of stocks, it has accelerated with the signs of a resumption of negotiations with Iran on nuclear power which could mean a return of Iranian oil production to the market. Noted Andy Lipow of Lipow Oil Associate. Suspended since June, these negotiations between the Islamic Republic on one side and Germany, the United Kingdom, China, France and Russia on the other, aim to save the agreement concluded in 2015 that is supposed to prevent Tehran to acquire nuclear weapons and which the United States unilaterally denounced in May 2018. If the negotiations are successful, the easing of sanctions would result in the return to the market of a significant volume of black gold, now under embargo. “This is a first step,” commented Mr. Lipow. "But the road is long and it may take several more months," added the expert.

The spot price for Brent is over $ 82 / b, close to 2018 highs (Fig. 1). The price of Brent continues to rise, averaging weekly at $ 82 / bbl, an increase of nearly 5% (WTI at $ 78.5 / bbl, + 4%). The firmness of oil prices is attributed this week to several factors including: the continuation of the OPEC + policy which did not wish to increase its production beyond what is planned The spot price for Brent is over $ 82 / b, close to 2018 highs (Fig. 1). The price of Brent continues to rise, averaging weekly at $ 82 / bbl, an increase of nearly 5% (WTI at $ 78.5 / bbl, + 4%). The firmness of oil prices this week is attributed to several factors including: the continuation of the OPEC + policy which did not wish to increase its production beyond what is planned; US statements regarding possible use of strategic stocks; the energy context which is pushing for an increased demand for petroleum products for the production of electricity; the rediscovered relative optimism of the financial markets (Fig. 2) after the agreement reached in the United States to postpone the deadline for setting the debt ceiling. These elements helped offset the downward impact of US statistics marked by rising oil inventories and production. #OPEC11102021. The OPEC + countries meeting on October 4 have decided to maintain their policy decided on July 18, despite American pressure in particular to go beyond their commitments OPEC + is not changing its policy of gradually increasing supply (+ 0.4 Mb / d per month). The OPEC + countries, meeting on October 4, decided to maintain their policy decided on July 18, despite American pressure in particular to go beyond their commitments1. This reluctance of the OPEC + countries is justified by two factors: 1 / the epidemic risk is not yet under control at the global level (marked by this link between contamination and death at a rate of around 2%; Fig. 3); 2 / The expected reversal of the supply-demand balance, which will return to a surplus in 2022. OPEC + has therefore chosen not to intervene urgently in the face of a situation deemed to be cyclical. No "immediate" use of strategic stocks in the United States. Last Wednesday, US Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said the federal government has several tools to slow rising energy prices, including a potential release of oil from strategic reserves (SPR: 617 Mnb vs. nearly 700 Mnb in 2016) and an export ban. The US Department of Energy, however, clarified the next day that it did not plan to use these measures to curb the surge in fuel prices (Fig. 4), which led to a rise in the price of oil the same day. . Beyond this ambiguous communication, the EIA's weekly statistics for the week of October 1 had a bearish effect on the market due to rising oil and gasoline inventories. American production (11.3 Mb / d) returned to its pre-hurricane Ida level in about 24 days (Fig. 5). Oil price and energy context. To understand the influence of the current context for the oil market, it is necessary to recall the situation of the energy market. Energy prices are soaring for both coal, natural gas and electricity (Fig. 6). In Europe, the spot price of gas is around 90 € / MWh on average in October, a value 5 to 9 times higher than the annual averages observed since 2014 (between 10 and 23 € / MWh). The average spot quotation for electricity in October was € 185 / MWH compared to € 30-50 / MWh for average annual prices in the past. It also appears that electricity prices regularly exceed the production costs obtained from gas-fired power plants. This could indicate a specific tension in the electricity market (insufficient supply, strong demand) which is not linked to the surge in natural gas prices, but which is on the contrary partly the reason. The reverse link, namely "the price of natural gas and CO2" define the price of electricity "is nevertheless not to be excluded (see annex). In any event, whatever the influence relationship of the "gas to elec." Markets may be. "Or" elec. towards gas ", or even a mixture of the two, the current context is favorable to a greater use of oil in power stations at the current price of around $ 80 / b (Fig. 7). The competitive price of oil for power generation is now between $ 90 and $ 120 / bbl over winter, taking into account the quotations on the gas futures2 (Fig. 8) and CO2 markets. Saudi Arabia and Iraq are preparing for the oil future. Two important pieces of information have been reported this week regarding the future supply of oil. The first comes from Amin Nasser, Managing Director of Saudi Aramco, at the Energy Intelligence Forum. He announced the gradual expansion of production capacities by 2027 to reach 13 Mb / d against 12 Mb / d currently (production of 9.5 Mb / d last July). This tends to confirm the reality of these sometimes contested figures. The second, revealed by Argus, concerns the close outcome of negotiations between oil companies and Iraq to increase production capacity from 5 to 8 Mb / d by 2027 (down from Previous targets of 12 Mb / d initially reduced to 9 Mb / d in 2014; current production of 4 M / d). These countries anticipate a future world that may need more OPEC oil even if global demand declines.